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Back to the Sweat for Canadian Sportsbooks As ALCS Series Momentum Shifts

After a fierce, raging, and snarling pitching effort in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series between his Blue Jays and the Mariners last night in Seattle, Max Scherzer, 41, is currently the talk of the country north of the 49th parallel.

Game 4 victory for Mad Max Bulls Blue Jays

The majority of people have seen the highlights, which include Jays manager John Schneider going to the mound to see how his starting pitcher was doing in the fifth inning while the Jays were ahead 5-1, Scherzer yelling at his manager that he was staying in the game, and Schneider instructing him to hit the final out of the sixth inning. Randy Arozarena is punched out by Scherzer using a curve ball. After winning Game 3, also in Seattle, 13-4, the Jays triumphed 8-2 last night.

“I thought he was going to kill me. It was great. He locked eyes with me, both colors, as I walked out,” Schneider said with a smile. “He has this Mad Max persona, but he backed it up tonight.”

After a hard-fought Game 1 loss of 3-1 and a Seattle thrashing in Game 2 of 10-3, the Jays landed in Seattle midweek, dead as dead, down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series, and staring at three games in the other team's park.

Tonight's Game 5 is led by Gausman.

But in baseball, things may change at any time, as Scherzer himself informed his teammates following Game 2.

“All of a sudden, this is a three-game series out in Seattle and that can be a completely different set of circumstances, games unfolding in different ways than they unfolded here,” he told Sportsnet. “As disappointing as these first two games were, this is baseball, things can change on a dime.”

For Canadian bettors, it's quite the rollercoaster. Following the crushing defeat in Game 2, Canadians were jumping off bandwagons and breaking ankles. 

Miller of the Mariners Wants to Repeat Game 1

Then, two past Cy Young winners—Scherzer last night and Shane Bieber on Wednesday—came to Seattle and gave it their all. The momentum shifted. Particularly when it comes to our professional sports teams, Canadians have a tendency to swing between emotional extremes at 300 mph. It was a Thanksgiving hangover, gloomy clouds, and depression on Tuesday morning following Game 2, and now it's sunlight and sugar floss.

The Jays will start Kevin Gausman in Game 5 (6:08 p.m. EST first pitch) against Bryce Miller of the Mariners in a rematch of Game 1. Gausman pitched 5.2 innings with three hits, two runs, and five strikeouts despite losing the first game.

For Game 5, the Blue Jays will start with the same lineup.

According to a DraftKings representative, 93% of handles and 85% of bets among their Ontario clientele are on the Blue Jays ML tonight (Jays -116, Mariners -105).

Canadian Bettors Flock to the Jays' ML

Canadian sports gamblers are unlike any other, as we have already discussed. However, those DraftKings figures are exceptional.

“Fans naturally love to back their hometown teams, and we’re seeing that in full force with the Blue Jays tonight,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook. “As they look to complete their comeback, Ontario bettors are showing strong confidence — backing the Jays to take their first series lead.”

According to a PointsBet Canada representative, the number of bets has increased by 33% since the Jays' 2-0 loss in Seattle. Over 90% of wagers were on the Jays to win on Monday, and early statistics for this evening's game indicates that over 90% of wagers are on the Jays to win as well, according to a FanDuel representative.

Added Eric Biggio, the Lead Baseball oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook: “Almost all the money is coming on the Jays and over 7. Considering the way their bats have woken up, I can understand why.” There’s a big shift in the Blue Jays in the futures pools as well, Biggio told Casino.org: After Game 2, +475 to win the ALCS, now -105; 14/1 to win the World Series, now +375.

Returning to the Sweat for Sportsbooks in Canada

This afternoon at ESPN BET, 67% of bets, or 88.4% of handles, were on Jays -1.5; 69.9% of bets, or 58.7% of handles, were on Blue Jays ML -120; and 16.9% of bets, or 77.7% of handles, were on Under 7.5. Toronto was +400 and Seattle was –550 to win the series when the Mariners were ahead 2-0. It is currently Seattle Even/Toronto –120 on ESPN.BET.

“After the first two losses the Jays’ championship price and World Series price had pretty much doubled,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant. “As we’ve talked about Canadian bettors bet where the hearts are, not so much the mind.

“So those two markets continued to take heavy action on Toronto thus expanding the existing liability greatly that was already there. Canadian bettors continued to pound them at those inflated numbers. Live betting has seen tremendous handle especially with the lopsided scores as bettors hit the dog hard hoping for that big comeback as we saw the Yankees pull off in the ALDS. It’s back to the ‘sweat’ for Canadian books.Three of the four games have been decisively won, thus I find it astonishing that the total is 7.