On Halloween night, the Toronto Blue Jays are poised to win their first World Series in more than 30 years, and the city's enthusiasm is about to soar to a level not seen since the Raptors won the NBA championship in 2019. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who crushed the Blue Jays in the Dodgers' 5-1 victory in Game 2, will face Kevin Gausman in Game 6 tonight at 8 p.m. EST.
The cost of tickets for the game at Roger's Center on Friday night is absurd. On Ticketmaster, outfield district resale tickets are priced at $1,666 each. A ticket in Section 19, Row 1 costs $11,106, but a seat in Section 511 costs $2,261.
With a Canadian team participating in the Fall Classic, any worries over broadcast ratings have been allayed. According to Nielsen, Game 4 on Tuesday had an average of 14.81 million US viewers on Fox, Fox Deportes, and streaming, making it the most watched World Series game of the year and the second most watched since 2018.
With Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Dodgers' roster, viewers in Canada are watching in large numbers, increasing ratings, as are those in Japan.
Following Games 4 and 5 in Los Angeles, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit two huge home runs, including one off Dodgers starter Ohtani in Game 4, MVP predictions have been fluctuating.
George Springer, who missed Games 4 and 5 due to strained muscles on his right side, appears to be returning to the Blue Jays lineup in Friday's Game 6 game. The 36-year-old Springer was close to playing in Wednesday night's Game 5, which the Jays won 6-1, according to Jays manager John Schneider.
The Dodgers are doing everything they can to get Ohtani, the best player in the league, into the lineup more. If the Dodgers force a Game 7 on Saturday, manager Dave Roberts is thinking about starting Ohtani or playing him as an outfielder. In the 6-2 defeat on Wednesday, Ohtani tossed 93 pitches.
A source claims that there is no two-way betting in Canada. Here, bettors are harsh on the Jays.
One Ontario operator stated on Friday morning that a Jays victory in the World Series "would be our single biggest event loss, ever."
“A Jays’ win tonight, or tomorrow for Game 7, and they get crushed. Don’t underestimate the patriotic, the stick-it-to-the-US-during-tariff-times angle, either, as jet fuel for betting on the home team,” said Phil Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant.
With a tip of the respect hat to Yamamoto, the Blue Jays are currently -240 to win the series but +125 to win on Friday.
Gray stated that there are several same-game parlays to sort through on Friday and that, should any of them succeed, he anticipates that certain books will be sitting on some "hefty" liabilities.
“Some value [that] stands out to me is [Kevin] Gausman 6 K’s +140, 7 K’s +260,” said Gray. “Yamamoto’s count doesn’t get to plus money until 7k’s +100. If Springer is playing, +470 HR – his status may be hindered somewhat, but that stands out,” Gray added.
Some of the most intriguing action over the last several days may be found in the World Series MVP Futures. Guerrero, who hit two huge home runs at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles in Games 4 and 5, is currently at -205 on DraftKings, while Ohtani is at +230. Trey Yesavage, the rookie who won Game 5, is at +5000.
“The US books need the Blue Jays to win the World Series. The Canadian books need the Dodgers,” said Gray.
This has been a tremendous acquisition period for Canadian sportsbooks, which might somewhat offset a potential huge loss, according to Gray, who points out that a lot of new bettors have been participating.
“Compounding the cumulative loss potential is [that] the Jays have been dogs all the way with some hefty +money prices on them getting hammered,” he said. “World Series outright today is now the first time they have been the favorite.”
“Before the World Series began, the Blue Jays winning it all was a good outcome for the sportsbook. Toronto is still the preferred winner, but we wouldn’t mind seeing a Game 7,” said BetMGM Trading Manager Seamus Magee.
As of Friday morning at BetMGM, the most prop bets were:
A scan of some of the other lines this morning shows:
The moneyline at ESPN BET is Jays +115, Dodgers -135, RL Dodgers -1.5 (+115), Jays +1.5 (-135), and O/U 7.5 (-115 on the O, -105 on the U).
Before Game 6, Ontario bettors are still considerably more optimistic about the Blue Jays than other bettors on the site, according to DraftKings.
Betting is fairly evenly distributed across all DraftKings markets, with 51% of the handle and 50% of wagers on the Blue Jays (+123) to win Game 6 and 49% of the handle and 50% of wagers on the Dodgers (-149).
With 68% of the handle in the US going over (7.5 runs), the majority of bettors are also anticipating offense.
In contrast, with 83% of the handle and 80% of bets on the Jays to win, Ontario gamblers are demonstrating significant local support.
"Pitching matchups play a huge role in shaping our MLB odds, and the Dodgers hold a clear advantage in Game 6 with Yamamoto getting the start,” said DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello.
“Gausman has been steady for Toronto this postseason, but Yamamoto has been dominant — as we saw in Game 2. That edge gives the Dodgers a strong chance to extend the series. Still, winning back-to-back elimination games is not easy, which is why the Dodgers are +200 to win the series.”
Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, claims that the betting handle is entirely dependent on the schedule.
“For tonight’s game, with Game 6 being the marquee event on the daily calendar, I expect the handle to be very strong,” he said. “The NFL is still king for us as far as wagering, but a World Series game typically performs similarly to an NBA finals or NCAA March Madness game.”
Which side is now experiencing the most betting activity, and is it leaning more toward sharp money or casual betting?
“Right now, there’s a really good split of two-way action, with a little more of the parlay money on the Dodgers. The sharper money usually comes in after the lineups are released, so I’d expect some sharper play towards gametime.”
What are some of the factors influencing the line for this game?
“Obviously, Yamamoto’s last outing is fresh in most people’s minds, which has kept the Dodgers as the road favorite in this spot. The number might be higher, but with the Dodgers’ slumping lineup and the chance Springer plays for Toronto, tonight might push the number more towards the Blue Jays.”
What prop bets do you expect to be the most popular?
“Vlad Jr. and Ohtani by far lead the list of most popular SGP legs. Both guys to hit HR’s, total bases, etc. Bettors are also backing Yamamoto tonight.”
I have been hammering the angle of heavy Canadian action on the Jays over the last few weeks
“Yes, the majority of the action we get from our customers in Ontario favors the Jays, and a good amount of Southern California money filters into our Nevada sportsbooks on the Dodgers.
“Outside of the So Cal influence, though, I’d say the majority of customers in the States are rooting for the Blue Jays, as most of the recreational baseball fans I know are anti-Dodgers!”
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